Estimating your target road race pace can be difficult, especially at the start of the season.
Check out these 6 methods for predicting your 5K and 10K race speed. Each one offers a prescriptive workout that projects race pace based on your current fitness level.
To determine your 5K pace, coach Peter Rea suggests 2x 7 minutes with a 5 minute recovery, with the second interval run slightly faster than the first. Rea has found that most athletes will race 5 to 8 seconds faster per mile, as compared to their interval average.
To predict your 10K speed, Olympic marathoner Pete Pfitzinger relies on a workout of 6x 1600m, with a 90 second jog between each effort. Again, each interval should be within 5 seconds of the others.
Get complete explanations of all 6 pace predictor workouts here, then experiment with a few in the coming months. They will help you to accurately predict your speed and manage your race day expectations.